Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview. #45 Arizona Wildcats 3-8 SU; 7-3 ATS Fargos Take The glory days of the late 90s in Arizona seems a lot longer ago than that but the Wildcats might finally be turning the corner. The Wildcats went just 3-8 last season, the same record as the previous campaign, but the record form last year was more positive. Arizona lost five games by a touchdown or less including three by four points or fewer. More importantly, the Wildcats discovered the future of the team at quarterback as Willie Tuitama emerged as a freshman after starting four games late in the season. He will be counted on once again to lead the team but it will be the defense that should show even more promise. Arizona will not be gunning for the Pac Ten title this season but the Wildcats have an opportunity to head to a bowl game for the first time since 1998. Returning Starters on Offense 7 Tuitama will be the man to run the offense and his passing ability will be the key to that offense. He has a solid group of receivers to throw to as the top four pass catchers are back led by super sophomore Mike Thomas. The problem lies in the backfield as leading rusher Mike Bell is gone and it will be up to junior Chris Henry to carry the load. He has just 34 career carries and the depth behind him is little to none. The one reason for optimism is that the offensive line will be the strongest in years so finding openings will be easier. The offense averaged 22.9 ppg last season, the most since 2001 and that average actually increases to 28.8 ppg in the four games Tuitama started. A repeat of that is possible if a running game can be established to create a much needed balance. Returning Starters on Defense 9 There was not a whole lot of improvement from the defense last year but head coach Mike Stoops is starting to mold the unit around his philosophies of an attacking defense. Nine starters are back led by an experienced and extremely deep defensive line. Stopping the run was a problem last season but it improved as the year went along, allowing 123 yards or fewer in four of its final six games. If the Wildcats can carry that progress over, this could be the most improved defense in the Pac Ten since the secondary is already at the top of the list. Wilrey Fontenot and Antoine Cason are two of the top cornerbacks in the conference while Michael Johnson is a potential star at strong safety. The defense allowed 26.4 ppg which was 64th in the country but that number should decrease dramatically in 2006. Schedule Playing nine Pac Ten games means only three non-conference games and for the Wildcats, two of those are difficult. They start the season hosting an improved BYU team before traveling to LSU the following week. A game against Stephen F. Austin closes out the out of conference slate and that cupcake is needed with USC coming to town the next week. Overall, five of the nine conference games are at home but only the game against Washington is the best chance of a sure win. Contests against Oregon St. and Arizona St. are toss ups and the Wildcats will need to at least split those two. The other home contest is another sure loss against California. The toughest road game is at Oregon in the second to last game of the season. The other three can actually go either way with UCLA being difficult as it will be out for revenge. You can bet on Arizona is heading in the right direction and if 2006 doesnt produce a winning season, 2007 most certainly will. Stoops is starting to utilize his own recruits now and it has shown even after just two seasons. The key is winning those close games that were lost a season ago. The Wildcats have not been very prosperous as a home favorite as they have gone 3-14 against the number since 1999. Obviously, bad teams laying points arent going to cover very often and Arizona has had some bad teams over that stretch. Look for this trend to reverse itself out as the Wildcats now have the capability to win some of those contests. We will see how it pans out as Arizona is favored in game one against the Cougars. |
Home
