WHEN 55 BEATS 65 I had an interesting conversation with a colleague yesterday as he quizzed me about the NHL and whether the rule changes made handicapping the sport more or less difficult. Looking at the numbers I responded my NHL program is clipping along at a 55.5% success rate pitting wins versus losses and that number appeared pretty much in line with the previous 5 seasons documented here at The Professional Handicappers League. He seemed taken back by that 55% figure and assumed that number would be higher considering my multiple NHL Hockey Handicapping Titles. I assured him that 55% is a solid number and delivers strong profits when games meet my strict criteria before being offered to my Clients. NHL Handicapping is a different animal and moneylines are primarily the chosen method for wager. When screening NHL games there is a wide discrepancy in lines and more often than not the teams expected to win offer very little value. I draw the line at moneylines greater than -130 deeming them of little value to my clients when weighing wager versus risk potential. You don't need a handicapper to tell you to play Detroit over St Louis when Detroit offers a -190 moneyline. My 7 year old son Scott could provide that play. Consider a heavy juice play and the catastrophic results should that team lose. It's essentially the same as losing 2 games rather than 1. My NHL program to this point in the season has recommended 141 plays with documented lines. 73 of those plays carried thin juice in the -101 to -130 range, while being offset by 68 plays offering positive money in the +101 to +240 range. This is where my no chalk program separates itself from other NHL systems. This is also why our 55.5% program leads The Professional Handicappers League comfortably with 2,208 Units won despite being back in the pack in winning percentage. The NHL has games on most nights and in some cases their can be 12 or more games scheduled and available for wager. With my selective screening however their may be 1-3 or even in some instances none that meet my strict standards providing value with a strong possibility of success. These are certainly essential factors to consider and this guideline is one I follow diligently. My Clients are above all the most important consideration I have and this program is geared for them specifically. I'm proud of its uniqueness and its track record for being the best in this business. Most importantly I can assure you my high standards will never change in this regard. Sometimes the numbers can be deceptive and an inauspicious 55% can be easily overlooked. The trick is to look a little deeper and compare these numbers for what they represent. Competing NHL programs with 65% winners may appear more appealing but in essence these programs may contrast dramatically. Units Won is the Bottom Line,and that's the number you can take to the bank! |
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